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Ann: Arcadia Partnership Process and OFS Update, page-13

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    Excellent news.

    We can now go from speculating about interested finance parties to it being officially announced that there is interested financiers.

    Azure were recently behind the CXO capital financing activity, more an Aus based and orientated entity. They specialist in mergers and acquisitions but also provide this sort of corporate financing.

    Vermilion has a very similar capability statement but is more targeted to asia/europe with strong connection in hong kong.

    Interestingly both are subsidiaries of natixis.

    "Natixis, a French multinational financial services firm specialized in asset & wealth management, corporate & investment solutions, insurance and payments. A subsidiary of Groupe BPCE, one of the largest financial institution groups in France through its two retail networks, Banque Populaire and Caisse d’Epargne, Natixis counts nearly 16,000 employees across 38 countries"

    Natixis.JPG

    A fairly balanced approach to run the process and would indicate a fairly diverse range of potential financiers internationally.

    So the 2 stage approach will drop in Q3 which is what i had indicated earlier as the more likely/probable pathway PSC would take. People should note that a 1.2mtpa initial production run rate ramping to 2.4mtpa will have a lower NPV due to decreased revenues. I would expect a quite favourable IRR though and the most important part is the lower capex hurdle rate makes it much more likely and easier to finance. Secondly, we minimise debt/dilution.

    We will however get the big numbers thrown at us a few months later when the 2.4mtpa from day 1 lands in Q4. Expect both of these to be extremely robust in term of the economics. Also expecting a high degreee of accuracy in the figures as this also incorporates the FEED (front end engineering design) into the FS. Additionally an optimised study builds on the previous knowledge. The figures in the OFS will be to a very detailed level. Lycopodium, given it's capabilities, will probably want to secure the construction contract and thus whatever they present in the studies (given it is entirely independent) i'm fairly confident will be reflective of reality.

    Final investment decision in Q4 this year, looking more likely. Noting this is caveat for performance shares being awarded. Very good time to hold, still severely undervalued on a peer basis. Lots of room to move.

    SF2TH
 
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