Well, I've used the figures from this document...

Well, I've used the figures from this document https://www.centrexlimited.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Centrex-Metals-CXM-Research_Nov-2023.pdf

They used sale price of $325aud/ton which I'm guessing is around what we're getting at the moment.

I chucked the figures into an excel spreadsheet (pasted below) and played around with the: yearly dry tonnage produced, cost per ton and sale price/ton. Then made some mixed conservative numbers and optimistic numbers, ie lower productive rates, lower sales prices, or higher productive rates and higher sale prices, or a mix of both high and low numbers.

With +50,000t this quarter, the CXM document conservatively assumes that we get another 100,000 from H12024 for a total of 175,000t. The document has the average production cost at $205/t which i worked out with total costs divided by tonnes produced.

I've chucked a whole heap of numbers around, to try and ball park the next 18 months. DYOR, these are numbers I put together so that I could see what impact higher/lower: cost price, sale volumes and sale price can have on profit.

FY 2025 (6-18 months time) is where I'm looking to at the moment. As long as stage 1.5 can get the funding and get up and running (this is what the company hinges on), even a conservative (lower than CXM are predicting) 300,000t in the year at $325/t sale price (possibly lower than what it might be with China banning fert exports) and a higher than expected cost price of $225/t still has a profit at around $30million aud.

Go to 500,000t @ $350/t and cost price $200/t and it's $75 million. No matter which way I tweak the numbers, looks like it's worth a punt at this price. Higher sales price than $350/t could be possible with China banning their fertiliser exports, will have to wait and see. Lower cost price also possible, CXM state $160-180 once stage 1.5 complete. I used $350/t sale price and $200/t cost price.

If stage 1.5 funding doesn't arrive/continues to be delayed by several months, the company will at a minimum continue to tread water @ 50,000t/quarter and make a small profit even at current cost and sales prices. My numbers have it that CXM will profit roughly around $8million H12024 even without a ramp up.

If stage 1.5 does get up and isn't delayed too much longer, and we have buyers looking to fill a void from the China ban, and prices rise steadily due to the China export ban, that is an upside lies.

Again, DYOR, not financial advice, happy to be corrected on these numbers or informed of something that I'm missing. GLTAH.