Just re-read the latest announcement, Even without stage 1.5 CXM...

Just re-read the latest announcement, Even without stage 1.5 CXM are expecting a production rate of 240,000t/pa by the end of January.

Even without Stage 1.5, only producing and selling 180,000t (not 240,000t) at a price of $325/t and production cost of $200/t, CXM could still profit 22.5million over the next 12 months in 2024 CY (not FY).

For a company with a MC at 45million, these are alright numbers? Of course the production costs could stay higher, CXM end up not selling as much as 180,000, and sale price drops, but I consider 15-20m net profit over the next 12 months a conservative base case given the likelyhood of a China export ban tail wind pushing up prices and driving demand for other Fert exporters. It even mentions in the latest announcement that we're exporting a maiden shipment to a North Asia customer. Someone will have to fill the void that China not exporting is going to leave. Morroco and other main exporters may be able to fill up some, most or even all of that void, but at what prices? It seems plausible that CXM will be able to attract new customers in the region, in an environment where China isn't exporting fertilisers.

The other thing to consider is Morocco (2nd largest Phosphate exporter after China) shipments to Asia would be coming through the Red Sea, which is where Yemen rebels have been causing problems for shipping at the moment.

I'm not here to up or down ramp, just putting my thoughts down for others to see, and happy to be informed of other factors that I'm missing and others to add to the discussion. DYOR, none of this is financial advice.