Ann: Ardmore Operations Update, page-15

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Mencel_as_anything

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21/11/23

12:04

Post #: 71016804
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Originally posted by Happ: ↑

Good update, more transparency as was wished for.

Everyone can now be comfortable that the current run rate is between 200-250kta. Also supported by recent CEO interview.

I would assume a conservative margin of $100 per tonne from December 2023.

To keep expanding from 250kta to 625kta, they require about $8mln in capital in the first half CY2024 (based on recent announcement).

Funding
1. Assuming $100 per tonne there should be about $5mln available in the next quarter.
2. Debt - assume zero right now.
3. Options - There about 70mln of those expiring 31/12/23 with strike price of 5c. If all exercised that's $3.5mln
4. Equity raising - up to 25% of capital if the resolutions proposed for AGM next week are passed.

There appears to be a bit of game going on. If the optionholders do not have $3.5mln to convert then they lapse and do not dilute the shareholders. However, if that funding is not replaced by debt funding, we'd need to have an equity raising. If we went to equity raising in the current market we'd be raising at 5c anyway.

It is possible that someone on the sidelines wants in but cannot achieve that on market. Well, they can buy stock optionholders at current prices, which would let optionholders convert at 5c. Or they can refuse to buy at current and wait until optionholders are forced to sell at lower prices, which would make the majority shareholder lose some of their capital.

For retail shareholders none of the above makes any difference as the situation with options would be resolved by the end of December 2023.

However, I think that we should stand by the majority shareholder to get out of this game of chicken quicker.

How - support AGM resolutions for capacity to raise capital. This would relieve the so called funding pressure (Note: I don't think there is any funding pressure because we can just stay at current production rate and not expand).

I would rather see higher share price where optionholders cam sell their stock and convert existing options to fund the company. Higher prices also mean less dilution in the event we still need to have a raising.

Let's send it!

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i think 100 a tonne margin is far too optimistic from December

They are aiming at <180 a tonne AISC once stage 1.5 is complete, based on realised sales prices up until now, Much more likely margins are around 50 a tonne once crusher is complete. That said, selling in these 20kt shipments is better for the bottom line so with that and shipping coming down and fert prices globally seeing a bounce, in good shape still.

Last edited by Mencel_as_anything: 21/11/23

CXM Price at posting: 6.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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