If you look at the details in previous updates, you can safely declare that they went into hiding until the next quarterly. Which is understandable, given that they misled investors about production rates in the past 6 months and concealed a massive charge from Aurizon. I assume they are scratching their heads trying to engineer a way to save their asses. Hence the less they say now the less can be used against them in the future. The only issue is that they won't get out of it easily as all misrepresentations and concealments can be traced to past announcements.
At the beginning of the calendar year the guidance was 440kt for CY2024.
In Q1 they shipped around 32kt with no inventory ramp up at the end.
In the quarterly (1) they gave guidance Q2 - 55k, Q3 - 108kt, Q4 - 136kt.
The total is roughly 330kt for CY2024 which is barely above Aurizon's renegotiated minimum volume of 325kt.
Given the delay in 25kt shipment, the shipments in the second half-year will need to be 270kt.
They did not update the market on inventory or production rate this time.
What is also concerning is that the renegotiated Aurizon minimum volumes are at 325kt pa for this and the next year. If the minimum volume for 2025 was at least 500kt (being stage 1.5 625kt production run rate) then the $4.5mln charge would surely have been lower. What it tells me is that the management is not confident at all that the production will be above 325kt next year.
Something is amiss here; I'd say prepare for more surprises in the next quarterly and half-yearly....and tax selling season before 30 June as well.
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