Ann: Ardmore Phosphate Mine Stage 1.5 Expansion Update, page-33

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LD99

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26/03/24

14:41

Post #: 73065142
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Originally posted by Happ: ↑

The whole business case hinges on the price of phosphate. I believe that it would stabilise and go up from here.

My thinking is that the USD is stuffed, the asset inflation is going to accelerate and the flight to commodities has begun. BTC first, Gold second this time, followed by energy, followed by raw commodities.

I do understand that the company needs to cover costs. What I like is that at least capital costs are being incurred before they go stratospheric.

My thinking is that they would be able to make at least 100 profit per tonne by the end of this year, which translates into 50c valuation on a multiple of 7.

Another case is that if commodities go parabolic and double, and the operating costs rise by 50% that's still an expansion of margin. For argument sake, say costs are 200 and revenue 300. In the doom debasement scenario costs could be 400 and revenue 600. The margin is now 200 and the share price should double from the time it was only 100.

Partly, why I got my hands on options as I think I would make a killing on those.

It can still turn to shit like anything else.

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Revenue is USD$152.50 less Samsung marketing costs, which in previous quarters was 10%+. Good luck CXM producing for less than $200 per tonne.

CXM Price at posting: 5.1¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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