I don't think there is any mystery on diluting down. To bring everything online it was always going to be raising the funds to do it yourself or become a junior partner in a consortium that does the same. It is only a perspective of diluting from what base so as to determine the share of the larger pie. Clearly all holders recent past and present know this and would wish for an undiluted stake going into the next phase, but everything has a value.
The debate is can the company enter the consortium phase without dilution for anything except critical value-add results.
Your timelines are credible in the small caps calendar. There are only a few moms and dads type investors left in, so everyone is doing the same NPV calculations on what the offering is worth at going-in value and going-in stake of the new venture. The share price is relatively stable at present so the current holders have nominated a value they think management can stick to, the wait and watchers think that might be a different price opportunity depending on the next month and a half, Someone is going to be right.
Is it a buy-out with residuals? Is it a continue as a minority holder and paid fees for managing? I'd like the latter if the funder is going to remain private until a listing payday down the track. But that's nothing but my opinion.
