Hey Wayne,
love a good objective brainstorm as others have mentioned on this forum that many don't give alternative opinions a second glance.
Welcoming such discussions i'd like to pick this apart a little and allow others to also join
but mainly from your discussion i could summarise
- You're put off by AGY's tone of "nervousness and precautionary statements"
- We need funding for Stage 3 and a lottttt (what will we do)
- You're wondering what happened to the independent testing
- Not keen on the high operating costs
All valid points. All of us would agree despite a little further derisking there is still uncertainty.
Let me provide my subjective take on this which is open to discussion
You're put off by AGY's tone of "nervousness and precautionary statements"
- Tbh, i think that's just how PEA's are. As you said you haven't read one before. They have so much legal liability with every party involved in it, they say the slightest thing incorrect and they can be sued. I personally don't think there was anything nervous about it at all. PEA's are very typically precautionary as that is the legal and functionary nature of it.
We need funding for Stage 3 and a lottttt (what will we do)
- You're right, we do...
Like other holders i'm hoping they will withhold from further share releases. Lithium plays a huge part in the EV and battery revolution and while 140m USD is a lot to need for stage 3 business are willing to invest
a lot for the right lithium. Companies and countries particularly in the middle-east know their days of oil are nearly done and are willing to invest billions. So do other countries, Asia is already all over it. Yes, it's a lot of money to need, but hopefully with this close relationship building we are doing with potential customers by tailoring the product for them so much - they will really be onboard with funding and supporting us. We're kind of like those birds that sit on a rhino and pick the bugs out of their fur. These rhino's are going to really appreciate our tailored product. If we can prove indispensable to their needs they will take advantage of the opportunity and hopefully look to fast-track us.
Also might be worth mentioning a couple of articles i read about banks realising the legitimacy of lithium and some are opening up to fund some projects.
You're wondering what happened to the independent testing
- Yes, me to.... and so is everybody else.
I trust Pablo's expertise in providing valid battery grade measurements. But independent testing is what matters.
A couple of thoughts about this:
i think if AGY were to release the whole announcement about customers likewise testing BG they would wait until they have finishing tailoring the product to meet their needs. That way they can say "hey, testing back from customer who btw is "xxx" and have tailoring product to [these specifications] and is of battery brade [9x.xx%]
(Which by the way is a huge and long back and forth process. Just let them do their thing they know what they're doing or they wouldn't have thrown so much time and money at it already. )
- Not keen on the high operating costs
Agreed, at 4.7k per tonne @ 10,000 tonnes, and 4.3k per tonne @ 15,000 tonnes i think that isn't good or bad, but about average.
I think around 4k and under would be impressive.
That being said, the PEA always tends to pick the higher cost bracket of things to cover their asses. A lot of the costs were just benchmarked from
other companies or estimates. I think long term Stage 3 they could get it down to 4k or under in my subjective opinion. I believe they are good at what they do.
If they dont... Another thing to think about is the fact that they are really picking this lithium apart to tailor it for the customer. This extreme customising might grab us another 1-2k per tonne for the lithium. so what's 4.3-4.7k cost per tonne if we're getting another 1-2k per tonne in sales.
That would be that same as 2.8k-3.2k operating cost and regular lithium sales price.
A lot of this is subjective ^ and am open to others adding to it, or discussions against. Hope everyones having a good day. Nothing better than a good ol constructive AGY Chat.
Cheers
- your boy Jez
(20min delay)