I did not say they would produce 2000t to stockpile it.
I say it would take them 12 months to produce 2000t as per their plant production capacity.
Agy says it will take up to 19 months to build and commission.
You are welcome to cut that down to 12 months if it suits you and makes you happier.
But I am just going off what the company said which is 12 to 15 months to construct plus 3 to 4 months commissioning, ie: 15 to 19 months
So lets recap, it is 19 months from the day Agy gets permits and Capex funding - that Agy can start production and another 2 months to get the first shipment off to Mits - so really all up it is around 2 years to get first revenue.
So plant capex is about aud$25mil plus 2 years worth of opex and admin of another $10mil - over $35mil over 2 years.
The 500t pilot plant is probably good for $3mil positive cashflow per year
So you have to ask yourself what is the earnings valuation on a 2000t pa producer that is 2 years away from first production.
After their first 12 months of production with everything going without a hitch Agy could have earnings of say USD5000 per ton on their first 2000 tons, that is USD10mil or approx AUD15mil per year earnings - nothing spectacular to wait around for.
Current market cap of $100mil before dilution has already priced in Agy being a 2000t pa producer 2 years away.
I see very little upside to the sp IMO
(20min delay)