Ok some quick modelling.
If metal prices are at PFS assumptions, and we assume debt finance at 4%, the NPV goes to $10b. We would be justified at $25/share in this scenario. Probably unlikely but also not out of the question given partners were involved in forming up PFS assumptions
if metal prices are at todays level with Nickel 19k US and cobalt 28k, and debt finance at 4%, NPV is at $4.67b - more of less the $5.1b PFS number. So if Ardea can finance at 4% debt with government, and the offtake requires consortia to buy at todays metal prices, we are a $2.3b company or $12. That is feeling like a worst case to me.
Play around with mental models around that...
Any way you look at it, this gives me immense confidence
Ok some quick modelling.If metal prices are at PFS assumptions,...
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