Wow, the good news announcement came out two days earlier than expected.
Ye of great faith, well done indeed.
My initial mimpressions...
Back of envelope Valuation Model 1:
Based on development capex of $3.1 billion, of which 35% = $1.085 billion.
$98.5M for 35% KNPL implies the JC's own valuation of approx. Cash $98.5M + JC's DFS expertise $985.0M.
So the JC derisked DFS expertise is worth 10x the cash outlay. Feels like the cash is the "GST" portion.
Also, does the $985.0M include any fees for high assurance introduction to the low cost Japanese financiers?
Good of ARL to disclose the DFS costs, which is at 3.18% of capex.
Being higher than the top end of the generally indicated DFS budget of 0.5% - 2.0%, this DFS will have very small margin of error, definitely < 15%.
Back of envelope Valuation Model 2:
Based on GHR PFS NPV7 of approx. $5 billion, of which 50% = $2.5 billion.
35% issued to the JC at their valuation of $1.085 billion.
Remaining 15% valued at $2.5 billion - $1.085 billion = $1.415 billion.
So the JC's derisked EPCM expertise is worth $1.415 billion, being $430M more than the DFS expertise.
Back of envelope Valuation Model 3:
PFS Capex $3.1 billion. Perhaps this cost will be significantly reduced in view of the following two points?
DFS full cost to ARL $1.085 billion.
EPCM full cost to ARL $1.415 billion.
Total cost to ARL $5.6 billion, if the PFS Capex does not include EPCM.
Looking forward to other points of views.
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