As always, especially for LT shs, context is essential for making informed investment decisions whether to continue to hold or to buy more, or to sell.
The context:
The PFS was done to 25% accuracy by external professional consultants, and announced in mid-2023.
As per AP, ARL received an email out of the blue from SMM regarding their interest in Goongarie. Implication was that SMM had been watching ARL's exploration successes for some time.
Then the Dream Team JC was formed to collaborate with ARL in Japanese business formality. Per AP, the JC were very pleasant to work with, implying respect, honouring words, and no gazumping games. Quoting LOTR Bilbo: "Saying what they mean, and meaning what they say".
The JC then proceeded to conduct their DD for 9 months in all areas technical, financial and economic. They were satisfied with the findings. Furthermore, the DD period of 9 months is half of the expected DFS period. That's a lot of careful checking and other DD work done.
The DD conclusion was the basis/benchmark/platform for the JC to secure their individual Boards' approval to make their FID (of sorts) to pay for the cost of the DFS.
The ensuing lengthy negotiation period that led to the successful Cooperation Agreement document was further proof of their genuine intent and commitment.
Then the eager beavers amongst the LT shs stumbled upon a number of NewCos recently incorporated(or reactivated) in the names of ARL's tenements.
ARL received the go ahead to proceed with the early works in relation to the DFS, although the Cooperation Agreement was not yet finalised.
When the Cooperation Agreement was announced, there were some publicised fanfare coming from Fed and State pollies and from the JC. There was much cultural, national, corporate and political face put out in public that would not be done had established and reputable JC and Japanese govt. leaders had strong reservations.
In each progressive step of the nine dot points above, the naysayers and trolls had dropped in uninvited and unwelcome to cast aspersions and FUD, and showing utter disrespect on top of their shameful ignorance.
Looking at the other identified unknowns in dispassionate light and in the context provided above:
Incorporation of SPV and novation of the Cooperation Agreement are the tasks of the JC. Is there a sound reason that the JC will not want to proceed and complete them? Sound reason means that based on validity and undeniability. Not whimsical made-up fluff even a 6-year old can pull out.
FIRB approval is denied if there is an assessed threat to AUS national security. The threat can be interpreted as a foreign interest holding majority control over AUS mineral assets in a corporation. The JC will hold at most 50% of Goongarie, being 33% (per latest MRE info) of ARL's mineral assets, in exchange for technical and economic benefits. Only the FIRB will know their decision-making processes. There is always recourse to mutually satisfactory renegotiations and alternate arrangements. Naysayers and trolls might try to put words into the FIRB's mouth, as they do.
Merger control clearance from KFTC is out of my depth. Totally doubt that this area of knowledge is within the expertise of the naysayers and trolls.
So after all is done and dusted, is there a sound economic reason for the JC not to make a positive FID on completion of the DFS? Can the DFS disprove the accuracy of the PFS and the JC DD? How so? By that, I do not mean made-up fluff. The cheap source of funding is believed to come from the Japanese Govt. under JOGMEC. What about the Japanese Govt.'s close business partnership ties with the AUS and WA govts, and also the Japanese Govt.'s priority in securing long-term Ni/Co/Ta supply? The Korean Govt. is already embarking on the same strategy, as both countries are only too aware of China's moves. The enemy of my enemy and all that...
There are no guarantees. Life is risky. But if naysayers and trolls use solely the absence of guarantee (plus made-up fluff) to argue for or against anything, then it is not the best strategy for their investment decisions. Such a mindset can only lead to stagnation and paralysis in any personal, or private, or public venture, not just ARL's operations.
Investment economics, conviction in the high quality of the JC and ARL management teams, and patience are key now for ARL LT shs.
ARL Price at posting:
47.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)