expect the expected

Often after an event we look back and wonder... 'why didn't I see that coming?!?' Many times he event is NOT something that had a remote chance of occurring. Past performance is a very strong indicator of future performance. Hence, short-priced horses win far more races than outsiders.
There are many examples of companies whereby one can calculate a risk/reward ratio. While nothing is certain and companies have individual traits.... one can forecast which companies are most likely to gain/drop in SP. If the potential reward is substantial.... a strike rate of 50% will still produce big returns.
Over the past 4 years MAH has outstanding track record of winning contracts with big mining companies often in association with LEI. So when MAH fell relentlessly to low 30's i bought big because.... as i wrote at the time.... 'i expect MAH to win several more substantial contracts before too long.' If a company wins consistently in the past.... the most likely event is that this pattern will continue. I mean...... why would a company muck-up a winning formulae?
I believe the current situation where good companies with strong earnings and low PE actually makes SP forecasting (over a 12 month time frame) EASIER than when companies were on PE of 14-25x. Take time to search out oversold/underpriced stks. Plenty still around. Be prudent.... if you have any doubts..... don't buy and look for others.
Fortunes have been lost the past 18 months. Fortunes will be made over the next 3 years.