Just to reinforce the impact of the assumptions used for the DCF model have on the final valuation outcomes, the Sensitivity Analysis at paragraph 6.1.3 of the GT report indicate:
- If BOO capacity grows to 300 MW, the valuation range (all other variables staying the same) is $1.05 to $1.24
- If BOO capacity only grows to 250 MW, but the WACC is reduced by 1.5% (for example by increasing the debt:equity ratio from 40:60 used in the base scenario), the valuation range increases to $1.32 to $1.64.
- Combine the above tow bullet points (i.e. 300 MW of BOO and a WACC reduced by 1.5%) increases the valuation range to $1.66 to $2.03.
Admittedly I have taken optimistic scenario's but the numbers do go to show what is possible if things fall into line in the future.
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