Sept FYTD doesn't tell us much (comparing Q1 to full-FY23?), as...

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danbradster

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13/10/23

18:36

Post #: 70335794
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Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

"Interest rates don't look like coming down any time soon so with some improved cost control SelfWealth presents a tidy little (nicely profitable) package with a view to a decent revenue stream and no apparent cost pressures on the horizon.Very much looking forward to Tuesday's presentation and the next quarterly figures."

As you've been doing from from around its peak levels three years ago, you continue to be a cheeleader for this stock, despite it having been demonstrated to be a flawed business model, and the only reason it has not found itself leaking capital is because of an extraneous factor in the form rising interest rates.

As for looking very much forward to the next quarterly figures, here's a leading indicator to what might be expected for SWF's Equities Trading Revenue segment in the September quarter:

View attachment 5660654

The consolation is that Equities Trading now represents a mere 25% of Total Group Revenue, so the rate of negative delta will be slowing (still negative, for sure, but at a slower rate and off a smaller base).

But the problem for SWF is that the delta on the Interest Income contribution hit zero in JH2023, and is likely to now have turned negative given ongoing outflow of Client Cash.

There are one or two future scenarios which are sufficiently gnarly to make a 20c to 22c bid (that's were I expect it would need to be pitched in order to clear the market) look decidedly attractive by comparison.

Today's announcement has the fat lady warming up her vocal chord.

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Sept FYTD doesn't tell us much (comparing Q1 to full-FY23?), as trades were probably already down as of last quarter. More important is whether they're down more in Jul,Aug,Sept vs Apr,May,June. That's able to be checked.

If they say Jul-Sept is 1.407m trades per day, only Apr,May,Jun need to be checked to compare. But I think ASX's numbers include robot trades, which is not perfectly correlated with retail trades anyway.

I'm waiting for cost of living pressures to subside, for people to get back into investing more. When people stop complaining so much about homelessness and skipping restaurants.

However, Google trends also shows some weakness in interest lately:

SWF Price at posting: 17.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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