Hi there FN,I took 200 000 shares 1.8c the other day,I think...

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JLH01

12 Posts.

22/11/24

21:47

Post #: 76740762
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Originally posted by ForeverNewbie: ↑

Definitely in one of those biotech moments. Would imagine that if a partnership was announced, there would be a considerable increase.

The way I see it there are two outcomes:
1.) We get a deal. Personally I believe a realistic agreement for co-development will be a upfront payment of 10-20m AUD (none of this 45m USD crap)
with milestones for stage completions. What those are? Anyones guess and I sure as hell ain't taking the slides milestones of 200m-1B they present either.
If we were to see an investment of say 20m AUD, I would imagine this would open around the 4c mark (~25mil MC).and with the green light, I would imagine a run would be on the cards. Would be the first time in 3 years that the company can actually move forward.
Most phase 2 companies I've seen are around the 30-70m MC (~5.5c-14c).
So the reward IF a deal gets done is considerable. This is also given that we see no further MC appreciation with the Ad-Cella termsheet agreement.

2.) These deal talks draw out for another year. CR will be required, we lose the funding as the SP would drop below 1.5c and unfortunately you would think that the AD-214 meal ticket is a bust. Would see this really burn in that event as Ad-Cella would only be in phase 1 trials.

Overall: Given that the markets are pumping and rates are potentially decreasing, there just are too many other attractive companies to invest in right now imo. Unfortunately I have lost faith in managements ability to close this deal in a timely fashion. Given TOs language we are still someways off and if this goes a year, it would raise serious doubts around a deal being completed.

Also another poster on theis forum mentioned that TO said he would show tangible results in coming months (1-2 months ago) and while the recent news flow has been promising, there really hasn't been anything to add value, more that our staffing costs will increase.

I am heavily invested here 1mil+ shares, so would love nothing more then TO to come through with the goods but certainly not enough to put more money where my money is.

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Hi there FN,I took 200 000 shares 1.8c the other day,I think that will do me for now.....Im sitting at 2m at the moment..hopefully this can take off in the new year

1AD Price at posting: 1.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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