The issue for BG lithium is that because it’s a lot more complex than say other bulks like iron ore or coal, there are a lot more integrated operators, not just independent miners digging it out and shipping it to a third party customer (in which scenario the cost curve actually matters). Once the mines become integrated with the refiners, the *mining* cost curve becomes less relevant, as has been showing all of this year.
Everyone - especially the Joe Lowry’s of the world - expected lepidolite to start going offline once prices tanked, because the Chinese miners wouldn’t want to lose money. That simply hasn’t been the case, they’re happy to run the mines on fumes (or even at a loss) because they make the margin back elsewhere. That’s why 2024 has seen production ramping far higher than any other year, even in such a weak pricing environment, per MS info below.
Just shows how hard it is to invest in a commodity/market when it’s dominated by one key player, and is still relatively nascent (rare earths investors are also learning this).
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