I think in addition to what you say, there is a also a strategic element here. Existing producers might be willing to sell below production cost for an extended period of time. As a result, they will have some ugly quarters. But they will survive. And their behaviour will kill many of the juniors, i.e. their future competitors. And once all of this potential future competition is dead, existing producers will have the time of their life a few years down the road. So bottom line is: this is not only about cost curves, this is about level of integration as you say, and also about competitive mid-term strategy.
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