Ann: Atlas Half Yearly Report and Accounts , page-19

According to recent presentation

- 3.34mt shipped in H1 FY13
- 8mpta current production rate
- Guidance for FY13 is 7.4mt to 7.7mt = extra 1mt to 1.4mt for H2 FY13

Based on price of $154/t dry expect $132/t wet (incl fines) [vs. $98.5/t in H1). (AGO achieving about 86-87% dry price for wet product mix.)

Incremental cash flow from higher prices on base production (i.e. on top of $70m cash from operations generated in H1) = $33.50*3.34mt
= $111m
Incremental cash flow from extra production = 1mt - 1.4mt x ($132-$65**) = $65m-$93m

So H2 currently tracking toward $70m (base) + $111m (price increase) + $65-$90m (volume increase)
= $246m-$271m cash surplus from operations in H2

Annualised this is $492m - $542m cash surplus from operations at current IO prices.

This is ignoring Abydos expansion to 10mtpa scheduled for H1 FY14. Also ignoring other expansion beyond 10mpta and port capacity allocation.

Net cash at 31/12 = $170m
MC on 920m shares @1.465 = $1350m
EV = $1180m

At current IO prices, EV multiple to operating cash flow - 2.4x - 2.2x
Ignoring Abydos and other expansion options.

[** Note $65/t cost calculated from revenue and "cash surplus from operations" figures on 3.34m dwt production in H1 - see p7 presentation]