I think you've had to much Panettone over the weekend.

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rcman

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27/12/17

09:37

Post #: 29878709
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Originally posted by defabs ↑

Webbers annualised production since during Sep quarter is 9m tonnes. Lump production has also been increased as per quarterly.

Abydos finished up crushing and cartage late October and would anticipate up to 0.5k of sales for the quarter as terms are CFR.

I forecast 2.75m tonnes sold with lumps being up to 1.5m tonnes.

AGO had 1.7m tonnes of puts at USD 63.20.
AGO probably made around USD 3 or AUD 4 per tonne in hedging gains for the full 1.7m tonnes.
This could be a hedge gain of $7m.

There could be a loss exc hedges of $3 tonne for Oct and maybe $1 tonne for Nov and a $3 gain in December. I've used 30% avg discount.

Therefore exc hedges perhaps a $1m loss

However as per above put options would deliver $7m gain approx

Swaps of 0.4m tonnes atUSD 68 could be around $2m gain

The lump premiums assuming 1.5m tonnes sold would result in a significant gain. The average dmtu has been around 0.17 for the quarter.
Gain would be around AUD 13 per tonne.

Based on lumps sold of 1.5m tonnes, the gain would be close to $20m

Then you have 1.5m tonnes of 57% lumps say reaping a premium of 0.07dmtu (conservative estimate) which equates to about $6 per tonne.

This would give AGO $9m lump premiums.
Then from a P and L perspective there are unrealised lump premium hedges which would increase profit by about $25m

Not including unrealised hedging gains, total net operating cashflow would be about $34m fir the quarter inc realised hedge gains. Anyway we will soon find out!

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I think you've had to much Panettone over the weekend.

AGO Price at posting: 2.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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