@Banker No, company has not shared profit margin per test. That's confidential, no company releases this info for any product they make. We can however as always, try guessing between the monthly, qtrly and half-yearly lines, between rev VS cashflow VS the various product stream costs.
On avg, my conservative guestimate is $1-$3 per RAT - since the commercial purchase is avg $10-$25 per test (this is for the commercial bulk packs as AT1 has approval for these only in AU + NZ as of this week + taking off intl shipment costs, wholesale purchase price, additional helpline costs, local logistics etc).
- AT1 has confirmed in qtrly that certain types of biz want the reassurance of having a Dx company provided test + managed help/support, so they are will to pay a bit more. Conversely centres like aged care homes, gov tenders, hospitals etc can't or won't pay beyond a certain $ per test...since there is plenty of competition + their budgets are already stretched. So on avg, this guestimate looks good for my calc.
- AT1 is purchasing these from Access Bio (so manufacturer wants to make some money too and they are already making $200m+ in US sales alone). - AT1 has stated its not going to be silly and sell at profiteering prices (like some other distros have been doing), so their packs are not ever going to be $30+ per test. Also considering AU/NZ ACCC are going to legally address biz that try this angle, its the correct biz approach + avoidance of public anger (when one needs their goodwill to buy m's of tests over next 12-24mths).
- airfreight costs are high + very limited flights currently (which has also been confirmed in Qtrly QnA + general news), so some profit is going to lessen just to keep getting enough shipments into AU/NZ (for next 6mths+?).
- yes, even if AT1 gets consumer/home self-test approval in AU, then I would still keep conservative of $2-$3 profit per test avg. Consumer prices can fluctuate a lot and depending on whether gov subsidy exists (or not), many people will have the wrong opinion if the test prices are too high for a weekly need (as is already evident)
So, all this boils down to potentially $10m-$30m (for the 10m prof tests) + the same for the consumer ones (10m tests, if approved). All this hangs on also being able to move all this qty (in a v competitive market for a relatively small pop size...so AT1 needs some luck to move even this tiny qty against giant Dxs that are able to ship in 100m tests annually).
Those are some big rev numbers for a tiny AU Dx $80m MCap company that made $6m+ in 2021 and almost nothing in 2020 (with an ever falling SP to boot!). If the annual rev turns out to be higher, that's just insanely good for this size + SP price.
And this is where the 'right to buy with no obligation' comes into better light - when it was negotiated in 2021, the AU RAT market barely had a pulse and even now there is no AU gov subsidy for widespread consumer purchases or general biz support.
If AT1 had signed an 'minimum purchase obligation' based contract, its on the hook to buy the 10m+10m regardless of market conditions (and waste their ever reducing IPO cashpile on tests that might expire on warehouse shelves). Now, the AU + NZ markets have shifted strongly to RAT adoption...with still room to grow....so AT1 can buy and sell (essentially everything they bring in should sell due to constant demand for next 6-12mths. Beyond that its hard to know if demand will remain the same..).
If the AU/NZ market falls off for any reason, AT1 doesn't buy more (and continuess focus on its core device IP commercialisation + HIV expansion + FebriDx supply etc etc Its a v good biz position to be in
(20min delay)