Happy New Year to you JFE!! IMO -if we don't make US$ 15 mill...

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dwjd

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03/01/17

14:17

Post #: 21653039
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Originally posted by jfe ↑

This is a great result for Atrum, I'm not sure the market has digested what this actually will mean for Atrum in terms of cashflow...but using highly conservative numbers (both on cost and sale price achieved), Atrum should comfortably achieve a margin of US$50 a ton. Applying this to 250k ton of product sold results in total revenue of US$12,500,000, of which Atrum would receive US$7,500,000 (their 60% split).

I know this isn't the end game, but it is significant for two reasons:

1) Cashflow - for a mining explorer embarking on the transition to producer, having cashflow secured through to 2021 is invaluable. It means the company will have less reliance on capital injections, it also means that raising funds for capex requirements will be less arduous whether it be via capital markets or debt markets.

2) Puts ATU in the game - there is every reason to believe that the customers for ACG anthracite will become the customers for Groundhog anthracite - I think a lot of people (myself included until recently) underestimate the value of developing business relationships with customers and what that means for offtake at Groundhog and potential equity stakes at project level for Groundhog.

It doesn't take a lot of imagination for the free cashflow that Atrum will receive from the Export Sales JV to be considerably higher, particularly considering the ongoing escalation of coking coal prices to levels that are now starting to look like being sustainable for the next 18-24 months (this will eventually feed through to price appreciation for high grade anthracite).

Atrum at 50-60c continues to be a bargain.

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Happy New Year to you JFE!!
IMO -if we don't make US$ 15 mill for 250 000t out of Atlantic deal I'll be most sad!! DWJD

ATU Price at posting: 56.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Happy New Year to you JFE!! IMO -if we don't make US$ 15 mill...

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