The Difficult scenario i see for ATV management for the near to mid term future is to navigate the growth of Software Revenue and the other verticals under a very tight budget, as was mentioned at the presentations/Webinars there is plenty of interest and options for growth ( their plate is full ) but for lack of Capital they have to be selective in their allocation of funds.
The Problem arise when Small Cap companies can not demonstrate profitability regardless of growth in revenue YoY and the expansion of scope, particularly when The price of money is high ( borrowing) the outcome with impatient investors when faced with SP depreciation is to preserve their Capital and cut losses. whereby SP for ever decline and CR means higher level of dilution for less Capital.
From what i have read no insider ( management) has sold down which may reflect their belief and validate the story. ( can be corrected) .
i am hoping and it is my rough estimation that it may take up to 3 years for ATV to be in comfortable FCF position, what has to happen is rise in Telco deployment stabilize and higher earnings while maintaining high profit margin, hopefully there will be a point ( all related to positive progress ) where SP will turn to the upside, when that occur CR will be less dilutive with more participant willing to invest and rapid growth can be accelerated.
I would like to see the complete turn around within these 3 years with not more then 700m of total shares including Options that are exercised at 10 to 16 c.
Which means that there are more CR coming up as we progress. We just have to endure this ditch of bottoming, obviously all depend on execution.
If in 3 years the high margin ARR is Around 18m or higher , with a max 700m of total ( shares + options) SP will be much higher ( maybe 3 folds from now).
At that point the sky may open up and ATV will be on a constant rise as well as a T/O target.
Time will tell, hope to be around.
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