In the west Australian today and online - interesting times.
got a call from Bao to see if I was selling and know a few others got the same
Mineral Resources was last night trying to bed down terms of a friendly merger-of-equals with Aquila Resources that will value Tony Poli's iron ore and coal group at more than $1.5 billion.
There is an expectation MinRes will announce the agreed share-swap deal at the same time as Aquila formally rejects the $3.40-a-share hostile bid from Baosteel and Aurizon, possibly as early as tomorrow.
Neither MinRes nor Aquila was talking yesterday but both placed their shares in trading halts, at $9.55 and $3.10, respectively, pending news of a "potential corporate transaction".
It is understood MinRes and adviser Azure Capital are working on terms of a merger that would be palatable to Mr Poli and the Aquila board. Although the deal is being worked out by MinRes, it is understood there is regular dialogue between it and Aquila with the aim of achieving a deal the target can recommend to its shareholders accept.
Any deal would likely be structured as a takeover by MinRes of Aquila, with a 50.1 per cent acceptance hurdle, to circumvent Aquila shareholder Baosteel's 19.8 per cent stake.
MinRes already owns 12.8 per cent of Aquila after last week' stunning share raid, which was priced at $3.75 a share.
Based on a merger-of-equals scenario - MinRes is worth $1.8 billion and Aquila $1.5 billion at $3.75 - Mr Poli would have his stake in the enlarged entity cut to about 15 per cent but likely remain the biggest single investor.
Baosteel and Aurizon, furious at MinRes' intervention last week, are expected to talk down the attractiveness of a scrip deal - versus the certainty of their $3.40 cash offer - because of the inherent uncertainty in the share prices of MinRes and Aquila at a time of weak iron ore prices and big execution risks surrounding development of Aquila's $7.4 billion West Pilbara iron ore project.
Sources close to Baosteel also say China was likely to take a dim view of MinRes' intervention, threatening West Pilbara offtake deals. "Baosteel will not support West Pilbara through funding, investment, debt or offtake and there is no doubt that other Chinese participants will take a similar view," a source said.
MinRes is expected to argue it can develop West Pilbara for much less than $7.4 billion.
