I appreciate the counterpoints on the growing trend for LFP battery packs. I don't think it's disputable that the recent trend in entry-level EVs is moving to LFP over NCM (811 or otherwise).
It's worth pointing out that different markets have different car preferences. Car ownership in Asia is a relatively new phenomenon in many countries. Car ownership should probably grow as more of the population transitions to the middle class but I'd say cost is still a major barrier to mass-adoption. As a buyer, when cost is the primary issue you are solving for then you make compromises on performance and other factors.
Europe has a massive bias towards compact cars for a variety of reasons. The top-selling models in Europe are mostly all hatchbacks. Australia has mixed preferences between utes and compacts (top 2 selling models are the Hilux and the Ranger) but we're not really relevant as we're such a small market.
The US is still by far the second largest single market for cars (after China). And Americans don't tend to buy compact, low-range, entry-level cars. All the top-selling models are utes or big SUVs and this has been a sustained and growing trend for a while. The hybrid SUV models are growing in popularity but these still give an 800-1,000km effective driving range. It's not like all of the soccer mums actually need cars these big, or need the performance to drive 20km to work, but they still tend to buy these models over Camrys/Civics/Corollas/etc. Those Silverado buyers aren't buying Model 3s, unless you think buying preferences change substantially.
I'm not sure many of those American buyers would buy an entry level Model 3 or a fully-electric Rav 4 that costs more and has an effective range of around 350km. I'd assume nickel-dominant batteries are still going to be highly relevant for these types of vehicles unless the LFP technology changes dramatically within the next few years (which I acknowledge that it definitely could). As @SnowballKelvin mentions, the Tesla "breakthrough" 4680 battery design is still a nickel-dominant cell. The Model X has a nickel-dominant cell, and both the upcoming Model Y and Cybertruck also appear like they will have nickel-dominant cells for the foreseeable future.
They seem to be back-solving primarily to reduce cobalt consumption. As a longer-term structural trend, I still think range anxiety is always going to be an issue in any country with significant urban sprawl. There seem to be other ways they could solve the range issue (e.g. battery pack design, silicon coatings, fast-swapping of battery packs, etc) but I'll leave that other people who may be more qualified and informed to comment on that. I am personally still bullish on the near-term outlook for nickel.
IGO Price at posting:
$9.73 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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