These couple of para's keep replaying in my mind - especially combined with proof of AISC improvements shown in the QTR.
Annual production of over 35-40kt.
35kt @ US$4/lb and AUD @68c = Revenue of $413m. Even with low economies of scale last Qtr's EBITDA margin was 27%. Using 40% EBITDA margin (deeper calcs on AISC components are conservative) I get ~$160m EBITDA. This puts AR1 on a <1x EBITDA multiple.
Upside
40kt @ US$4.5/b and AUD @70c = ~$570m Rev and with scale 45% margin I get $250m EBITDA or a <<<<1x multiple.
If I back out gold/zinc from Oz Minerals I get something like a 40x multiple of EV / Cu production kt. If I applied same to AR1 I get $1.8b Market Cap (allowing for some net cash) at 40kt . Seems like there's some room to move here.
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