Ann: Australian Government Conditionally Approves A$185m Loan, page-171

Hi WombatKeith

Very bold question, thank you for putting it to me. Obviously this is not financial advice and I don't think anyone should ever invest money based on what they read on HotCopper.

However that being said, happy to put together some basic information and timelines supporting the rationale:

Stage 1 Siviour based on:

• NPV of US$499m (AU$700m)
• 28,000t production p.a.
• US$142m (AU$200m) CapEx

Major new information to feed into revised DFS:

• Offtakes covering 60,000t production p.a. (double increase)
• Non Binding Offtakes from Posco, Minguang, Zeto and Hanwa
• Possible equity stake by Posco
• Major project status from Australian Government
• Higher PSG yields in commercial scale milling tests
• +40% increase in PSG pricing
• Conditional approval on a $185m loan facility from Australian Government arm, Export Finance Australia

My Estimate for the NPV is upwards of US$1.2Bn (AU$1.7Bn) for the revised DFS of Stage 1 & 2.

Given the project is becoming more and more derisked (i.e. if $185m funding comes through the derisking effect is huge), the discount to Market Capitalisation will narrow.

Market Capitalisation could approach AU$1Bn (i.e. ~$0.53/share)

ALL IMO

Wolf