O.K folks.....I'm going to keep it as real I can. Firstly I would like to say congrats to everyone today in attempting to unravel and understand what is happening with SYA following the announcement today. However to be honest, and as a separate issue, I don''t know what to believe here on HC threads....and at the same time I don't really care either as I do my own thing irrespective of all this ' Stuff '. I do reckon that some of what I read if not most actually suggest they want SYA to collapse....and yet at the same time they give their sentiment indicators as if they in fact have positions in the stock. I guess if you look at the social media aspsects , why wouldn't you try and us it to gain some advantage through posting absolute BS. The thing is folks, what we are doing here on HC is only but one part of the investor and market Psychology IMO. Its an real time image if you like of what is happening in the broader investing markets. Obviously there are many many reasons to sell with Fear of losing more, alternate investment strategies, heard mentality , risk appetite , preserving capital to name just a few - but one of the single biggest factors driving the SP's in markets IMO; and which largely explains the large declines followed often by the subsequent re-rates and bounces is simple. It is the basic fact of .....knowledge ( ie those with ) and / or the lack thereof ( those without ). In other words the people who know or seemingly know, position themselves around what they know and those who don't really know end up either panicking and consequently making rash uniformed decisions and selling their holdings. So what happens next - Markets and SP's are sold off irrationally only to leave sellers dumbfounded when SP's amazingly bounce back. The main reason folks , is people / investors just do not know what's going with the very company they invested in to begin with.
So what happened today that we already didn't know was going on. I think I only mentioned last week that SYA would most certainly reach .03 cents. I also mentioned that I would support it on the way down in exponential multiples at 3.5, 3.4 , 3.3 , 3.2, 3.1 ....and ultimately with my largest Buy multiple at .03. Was it because I knew something everyone else did not. Maybe.....or maybe it is simply how I look and piece things together vs others. The fact of the matter folk's is that what has / is happening with SYA is a ' fundamental ' feature which is unique to SYA and obviously in turn drives its SP. Much has been said of double tops and double ...and triple bottoms , support and resistance ..etc..etc. - and to some degree you can draw what you want into this analysis , but today there was a moment when even I thought the support level of .03 cents which I had pegged had completely come unstuck when there was nothing supported by volumes in the screens. There was in effect absolutely no support at .03 until some semblance of order and perceived value came back from the brink. There was a split second that I second guessed myself in stepping into the markets at my pre-determined levels. I did this because I was already across the environmental issues which seemingly caught many off guard. Its about getting the correct decision done at the right time. When others were touting how important it was to somehow take the moral high ground in supporting the Company's Capital Raise, I make no apologies in taking the alternative view in supporting the declining share price at this time of crisis and because I saw tremendous opportunities greater than those having taken up these rights.
The main thrust again from this announcement today is IMO to soften us up again for a delay in the DFS.....however in reality folks, it is nothing out of the ordinary. It should be a no ' Briner ' that a complete DFS MUST include environmental permitting and related issues. These issues in fact would have been needed to have been understood and fleshed out at the PFS stage .....not at the death knock of the DFS - imo. And there in lies the biggest flaw in this managements abilities . They have totally misjudged or misunderstood the requirements or more the point the concerns of the local community. In other words , its clear they thought they had it in the bag.......or did they ? ( they knew it was pushing out )
Everyone has mentioned how great the management is and has been......and they obviously have done some great things with AJM. One has to ask though whether they have spread themselves to thin and in particular not employed certain qualified ' French ' personnel when and at the time they should have. And its not as though they haven't been late with anything either. The DFS itself was supposed to have been delivered in the 1 st QTR of 2018 - as per one of their announcements , so was in effect 6 months late to begin with. Then there was the 5 tonnes of Li rock which was supposed to have been sent to SGS for the 100 hrs which was then announced again some 2 months later. Everything is being pushed out.......and that is for a reason for those who have understood the dynamics of what has been happening.
It's all very well to look at the legislation and governing bodies with their required disclosures , consultations , processes and timelines. These are only a process which provides the framework - legal or otherwise for companies to operate within. To me while its great to know these things as an investor its more about the ' precedence ' and ' research ' when it comes to making your case.....or in this instance making SYA's case.
With respect to ' precedence ' .... you can't go past observing what has happened in the region and industry over many decades. During this time, we know there are have been many many mines let alone the processing facilities developed in this area near and around Val-d'Or. There is not just Lithium , but Gold, Zinc, Copper and other Rare Earths.
So with that lets take a look at Nemaska for a good example with this paragraph taken out of a minesqc.com past information sheet when they were going through similar issues :-
The Whabouchi project has been targeted by an environmental and social impact study which has been submitted to the Quebec Review Committee (COMEX), to the Quebec Cree bipartite body responsible for examining projects south of the 55th parallel, as well as to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency (CEAA). The public hearings required by the provincial and federal levels of government were held in November 2013 and April 2015, respectively.
And this is how they ended up responding:-
Description of Measures Implemented In the first steps of project development, Nemaska Lithium worked in full compliance with industry standards for engagement and consultation. However, even though concerns were identified through the environmental and social assessments, they were not fully integrated into project design. This led to multiple concerns still being expressed by the local communities and individuals, as well as by the provincial and federal authorities when the initial version of the ESIA report was issued in 2013. In light of the comments and concerns received, Nemaska Lithium decided to entirely reassess the technical design of its Whabouchi Mine Project as part of the framework of the Feasibility Study, and thus fully integrate communities’ concerns and issues. The key changes examined in the Feasibility Study included the waste rock and tailings pile, and the location of the sedimentation basins and related final effluents (i.e., the project components of greatest concern for the Crees of Nemaska). While accounting for the many constraints prevailing on site, the principle objectives were as follows:
- Reduce the amount of mine infrastructure to be built;
- Concentrate infrastructure near the ore deposit; and
- Minimize the project’s ecological footprint.
Following the reassessment, Nemaska Lithium decided to completely review the location of all stockpiles, basins and effluents to ensure they were located far from the nearby lake. At the same time, other changes were made to the project to reduce wetland loss, to ensure only one final effluent, to reduce the visual impact associated with the waste rock and tailings pile for land users and neighbouring Cree camps, and to avoid any deviation of the existing roads. Results In total, changes made to the mine infrastructure layout in the Feasibility Study made it possible to avoid the loss of approximately 53 hectares of terrestrial and wetland environments. This reduced the direct impact of the project on these environments by 25 percent, in part because the infrastructure that will be required for the underground operations beginning in Year 21 will be located entirely within the boundaries of the open pit. By incorporating the concerns and issues of local communities, Nemaska Lithium was able not only to minimize its impacts on the surrounding environment but also to form the basis for strong partnerships and relationships with the Crees of Nemaska
I particularly like this last paragraph which in no doubt SYA is also well aware of and the lessons learnt by Nemaska. We can only hopd they will also apply these lessons in bringing these matters to a reasonable conclusion by delivering favorable outcomes for all vested community interests:-
Lessons Learned In Canada, legal requirements associated with the development of mining projects stipulate that companies must inform and engage with the surrounding communities to ensure that their concerns and issues are taken into consideration. However, the development of the Whabouchi Mine Project has demonstrated that concerns should not only be identified and addressed as part of the ESIA process to meet requirements, but should also be shared with technical teams and be integrated into project design, limiting the potential impacts of the project on local communities and individuals. This enables the optimization of not only the project’s technical and economic components but its environmental and social components as well. Real partnerships between communities and a mineral company developed early in the exploration stage enables the establishment of greater certainty for a mining project and favors better community acceptance.
There is more to discuss in so far as the ' Research ' aspect but will differ this to another post. GL and good opportunities for tomorrow.
(20min delay)