Ann: AVITA Medical Announces Preliminary 2023 Highlights, page-29

@Roy2U I can't help but wonder if the planned timing of the 2024 salesforce expansion is another sign of the Company's confidence in receiving FDA approval for GO in May and new VAC approved accounts


In preparation for the expected GO launch, they'll have additional expenses (GO production, salesforce expansion, marketing) so I'm still hoping for a 4th catalyst which could offset some of these expenses ~ BARDA contract renewal which includes a procurement order as I referred to previously Post #:71535856.

Thanks for sharing the link, I found it insightful. Since you like multiple sources for your research, previous management were expecting VAC approvals in burn centres to take 6+ months:

"AVITA has a policy of providing the RECELL System to a provider only after they have been certified, which includes extensive training in the use of the product and in the aftercare of the patient. In general, we have found that most U.S. burn centers follow the industry-standard process of evaluating the RECELL System and then taking it through their hospital’s Value Analysis Committee (“VAC”) prior to purchasing. This process can sometimes be a lengthy one, taking 6 months or more to complete." – 2022 Annual Report

If all goes well with the VAC reviews, we should see a continuous inflow of new trauma accounts added over the next 2-3 years from now. I think they will be targeting the 230+ high volume trauma accounts first, followed by the remaining 430+ smaller trauma accounts [total 800+ burn (140) and trauma accounts (660+)].

It's interesting to look back at the adoption in burns for some perspective (the company had less resources back then):


Even though I think the $78.5 – $84.5 million revenue guidance for 2024 is based on the assumption that RECELL GO is launched on May 31, 2024 (2023 revenue guidance was based on trauma FDA approval), I had a play around with my notorious spreadsheet to give me a rough idea of how things might look at the low and high ranges of guidance:


(My thoughts - looks possible without GO and with VAC approvals and surgeon adoption, or with GO and slower VAC approvals and surgeon adoption)


(My thoughts - looks possible with GO and a solid flow of VAC approvals and surgeon adoption)