Its possible that people know sales numbers are not meeting expectation this quarter and this is leading to the SP weakness.
Another reason might be people re-calibrating their thoughts about AVH's funding situation. We've gone from:
- AVH CFO saying we won't need the additional $50m at all; to
- looking like AVH will need it given way higher than expected cashburn in the last two quarters; to
- AVH may not be able to even access the funding and might have to pay back what it has already drawn down against a forced timetable due to missing the minimum revenue hurdle.
If it got to stage 3, a capital raise will be required. Not saying this will happen, but can understand reservation about buying into AVH until the $67.5m in 2024 is in the bag.
The problem is the CEO speaks like he's swallowed one of those positive thinking self-help books and the CFO is just a CEO-lackey who'll do and say anything he's told in order to maintain his way-above-ability salary. Makes it hard to judge the truth about likely sales performance and cashburn.
$2.50 / share won't last long. If Q2 sales present a trajectory that makes the $67.5m likely, AVH will be back over $4 in no time. If the opposite is true, the SP could easily drop by 50% or more as AVH will be a company looking for a new management team while doing an emergency capital raise ....
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