Thanks for some great analysis, @saltland for my weekend...

Thanks for some great analysis, @saltland for my weekend reading.

I always try to analyse what is likely to happen based on more than one method, if possible. So it is very interesting that your latest Scenario 2 estimate for Q3'23 of 2394 total kits sold for Total Revenue of $15.57M aligns almost exactly with my completely different analysis based on sales staff productivity that I have outlined below.

Note: The following sales productivity rates are based on previous statements on sales staff productivity by Avita (Ref Webinar on August 11 2023 and the Q1'23 quarterly conference call):

• "The average sales rep exceeds 20 units per month of productivity"
• "New sales reps reach sales of 5 units per months which covers their cost in 3-4 months, or 6 months to get to a positive contribution margin"
• "New sales reps should reach 20 units / month in well under a year"
• "We expect that the potential is quite higher than that" (i.e. > 20 units per month)

Stage 1 (whereby the new sales staff reach 5 units per month by end Q3'23 - i.e. within about 6 months employment)

• 30 experienced sales staff selling at the usual 20 units per month = 1800 units per quarter;
• 40 inexperienced sales staff approaching a break-even selling rate of 5 units per month = 600 units per quarter.
• Total from all 70 sales staff: 2400 units per quarter x $6500 ;
• Your scenario 2 estimate is for 2394 units per quarter

Stage 2 (whereby the new sales staff reach 20 units per month by end Q1'24 within 12 months of employment and the experienced sales reps reach 25 per month). It was interesting that Avita now expects to further expand its sales team from next year.

• 30 experienced sales staff improved their efficiency to 25 units per month: 30 x 25 x 3 = 2250;
• 40 most recent sales staff improving their efficiency to 20 units per month within 12 months of their commencement: 40 x 20 x 3 = 2400.
• Total from all 70 sales staff: 4650 units per quarter.
• Quarterly revenue run-rate: 4650 x $6500 = $30M per quarter.

@Melody432 , I know how you will respond based on your preference to stick to guidance. It's just that for me, there is more money to be made by trying to be ahead of guidance by doing your own analysis such as by @saltland and in this post. The market price has already reacted to previous guidance. If @saltland and I are right, then guidance and expected growth rates will be upgraded significantly by the end of 2023.