Thanks for the feedback, @compint. Great to be getting more useful discussion.
The main reason I looked at sales rep numbers is that Avita has given repeated guidance on the average number of sales by experienced sales reps (20 / month), and how long it takes for the 40 new sales reps to get to this level (well under 12 months). I have not seen any guidance about expected market capture rates out of that 420,000 procedures.
That said, Avita has already reached 20-25% of the previous burns approval market of 25,000 procedures per year. I estimate it is getting closer to 30% now. If they can even get to only 5% of the new market, not including vitiligo, then that is 21,000 procedures per year compared with current numbers of around 8,000 ($52M / $6500). That would be 2.5 x current levels on a very conservative outlook. I think they can achieve this with their current crop of 70 sales reps assuming they can average 25 units per month on average. To get to 10% of that 420,000 market, they will need to double the number of sales reps, or greatly increase sales efficiencies (which may be possible with Recell Go).
AVH Price at posting:
$4.33 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
