AVG 0.00% 16.5¢ australian vintage ltd

To be more precise TWE acquisition multiple is 13.2X EV/EBITDAS...

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    To be more precise TWE acquisition multiple is 13.2X EV/EBITDAS at 315 Mill USD. The current AUD/USD rate is 0.725 = 435 Mill AUD acquisition price.

    I forecast AVG to deliver 21.5 Mill NPAT in 2022. Working back to get EBITDAS I get, 21.5/0.7 + 3 Mill interest + 8 Mill Depreciation & Amortisation + 1 Mill SGARA = 42.7 EBITDAS

    42.7 * 13.2 = 563 Million EV
    563 - forecast NET debt in 2022 of 45 - 50 Million = 518 - 523 In capital value. That an upside from current market cap of approx 2.4X.

    In other words based on the above multiple AVG’s share price should be trading at 0.85 X 2.4 = $2.04


    Last edited by Chao88: 21/11/21
 
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