TMT (ASX) Ann: AVL INCREASES SCHEME CONSIDERATION TO BEST &amp; FINAL PROPOSAL

Originally posted by LewisB ↑

There’s still a ~12% declared no vote, which means you’d need a 36% yes vote. They have 39.9% including the board declared yes votes.

Honestly it might not be enough, it’ll go close. Votes are typically poorly attended, and people will likely be more inclined to turn up to vote no than yes (we’ll be able to see this come the vote whether I’ve got it right or wrong).

Some people have posted that AVL’s usage of the term “best and final” means they legally can’t increase it. This is correct although they may be able to propose a new scheme with an increased offer, however we would have to pay all the exit fees applicable to this offer.

I feel offering 14 with that terminology is a bit of a line in the sand. Seems the new AVL management are going to be better at keeping a tight registry that TMT.

the question I’ve got to answer for myself between now and January is will i make more money with AVL at 14:1 than I will holding my TMTs, at 12:1 I was firmly of the opinion that I was handing multiples over. A 16.6% increase is not to be sniffed at, and if it returns a slightly smaller return in a shorter timeframe with less risk than TMT alone that’s well worth considering. As many people have said before the opportunity cost in TMT and AVL has been tough so far.

Expand

Worth remembering that with Station and Standard Pastoral accepting the changed terms it may set a model for other large holders in at low prices - eg Khazanah (and anyone else from that first top 20 list who has fallen off the list but may have retained or sold only some of their shares.)

And on top of potential for changed sentiment amongst ‘Team Cicero’ ( ie the earliest investors who paid comparatively low prices) there is the new institutional support from Cumulus who paid much higher prices - not as much as RCF, but still the revised offer looks as though it is now acceptable to a much wider range of shareholders
…..and the market today agrees given the buying;
ASX VWAP as of 20 minutes back was just under 24.5c according to stockness monster;

https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/tmt.asx/

cheers