Hi Scarpa in reply to your post and questions.
1) I don't think a delay of a year is detrimental to moving the SP. We are in uncertain times and this move is fine with me. Having the Nickel as play, wont do any harm IMO as this will only feed the speculative juices. I don't think the prices that were achieved by KDR and the like will be repeated in a hurry, but a TO price of multiples from where it is now, I believe is achievable. Many companies are snooping around and the WA locations are attractive. Yes I am currently holding.
2) PLS was too fast out of the blocks IMO. Converters and other parts of the chains were not ready, Chinese manipulating prices down ( The reason I approve of the recent FIRB restrictions to foreign ownership as this limits large Chinese equity holders push prices down to profit in China from vertical integration benefits) have placed all miners in a difficult position. PLS will be fine long term and refinance their debt IMO. I am only have a small holding now.
3,4) Both small miners will be gobbled up by others.
5) I think prices will settle in coming years around the USD750. Countries will want to control their own Lit resources better and spread their OT to other parts of the world, other than China. AVZ has a top resource, no question. What is not factored in enough is the risk at that location that large offtakers and investors don't like IMO. This is the reason why the SP is lacking after all these years. Even if the Lit prices have to rise by getting supply out of stable locations this will be preferred IMO as it will have little affect on the price of an EV.
6) Being heavily involved with the Chinese myself they love changing contracts and I put very little weight on contracts with them. The CV19 dramas will speedup the development of plants by the Europeans. Reliance and domination by the Chinese will be reduced IMO.
7) Yes I owned AVZ a few years ago and sold out after the German sold. Have not hold or traded it since. My thinking was that if this was the golden egg that is the Arabia of Lit then why sell a share with all the inside knowledge the German had? It was said he had tax bills. To me that is BS, you rob and steal to hang onto the shares if this was to set you up for the next 10 generations IMO.
In general, DFS are great, but ultimately not more than a plan, a piece of paper and never easy to achieve fully. PLS is a good example, although getting closer to it.
I don't think AVZ mine will be developed in a hurry. Too much risk and needs too much money in that location. Yes if demand outstrips supply and the WA miners our unable to supply the spod then mines in more risky locations will be developed. I can't see that happening here before 2027-2030.
The problem with AVZ thread is that when you post an opposite view, the dog pack mentality immediately happens. You get attacked and other Lit companies are dragged into the response. It should not matter if you hold the share or not, if you post more than shares you hold or not, immaterial. This is the purpose of the forum. This mentality is also why non holders come here as it is a red flag to a bull.
The threads here are held captive by a few that become very defensive, it happened a few years ago and now again. They push and push with bullish repetitive posts then disappear again once sold out. I have seen it many times and it is normal that they get many thumbs up and pads on the back as all holders want a rising SP. IMO they are far more detrimental than posters who are negative towards the company.
Watch the dogs attacking shortly.
Cheers
