Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

AVZ

Click for more information

0.00%

78.0¢ avz minerals limited

Hi Scarpa,Thanks so much for all of your insight and research in...

First 89 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
GD4

129 Posts.

171

21/04/20

11:07

Post #: 44161424
Share

Originally posted by Scarpa: ↑

A quick scan and that is all this post is, but 163 pages need a decent read and won't comment further until have a good read and re-read of this.

Page 38 ( doc page 17 of Section 1): "A phased approach to capital outlay was also assessed, but economic analysis highlighted the economic imperative for Primary Lithium Sulphate production to be available in the earlier years of the Life of Mine (LOM) which is sold at a higher price of $ 7,400/t." My comment: Surprised, moving all in, with ramp up stage very short to suphate. Need to work out this Ann by modelling it myself on how the numbers were derived. Wasn't anticipapting such a quick move to sulphate in my previous modelling.

Page 11 of section 1: "Offtake agreements are presently being negotiated with several companies. Yibin Tianyi, is showing interest in securing approximately 150 kt/a - 200 kt/a of SC6 and many other lithium convertors are either approaching AVZ or vice versa, regarding securing offtake agreements not only for lithium products, but also for tin and tantalum. AVZ believe that the 46 kt/a of Primary Lithium Sulphate produced will be suitable for off-takers who are looking to reduce their own supply chain cost through buying already processed lithium products to reduce their own operational working capital risk." My comment: seems to be the driver of the above, and why sulphate. Time will tell, but equity for Offtake Agreements are now a must to meeting that higher capex spend (US$545 million compared to previous Anns looking at a DMS only option of about US$275 million). As I posted the other day, the key test now is equity for Offake Agreements, because that is the most likely way the project will be predominantly funded IMO. Given the capex costs, without Offtakes the project will not happen, IMO so gettig the binding agreements a key.

Page 10 of 20: "The Company expects some of the applied taxes, customs and duties in the modellingto be waivedor significantly reduced under the AVZ and DRC Government’s Special Economic Zone agreement which is being negotiated now." My comment - further improves IRR/NPV, which is quite good here.

Other notables:
1. Transport costs now US$252 per tonne, with product split between Salaam and Lobito (assumption: wonder if targeting Europe from Lobito, China from Salaam - time will tell). (Anyone seeking to understand the difference between hydroxide and sulphate may want to read this thread, and there are not a lot ofposts on it: Post #: 43467513
2. Key is spodumene price assumption (US$673.70) and sulphate assumption. Obviously they are anticipating spodumene prices to improve, but they don't see prices moving back to 2017 or 2018 which is fine. etc etc.
3. Payback period is good, but dependent on price assumptions
4. Tin recovery included.

Will get myself a six pack and have a decent raed today before saying anything more.

All IMO

Expand

Hi Scarpa,

Thanks so much for all of your insight and research in your posts, it is very much appreciated.

Do you think it could be possible that Nigel is being forced to go "all in" and ramp up more quickly due the increased demand for offtakes. Behind closed doors he might have a lot of potential offtake and possible equity partners which would require the mine to be ramped up more quickly ???
It would be a nice problem to have ....

AVZ Price at posting: 6.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
22 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

DTM

Dart on-target for high-grade structures and multiple reefs at VIC's Rushworth

M4M

Macro Metals picks up 80% in Firebird's manganese plays; mining services operations to launch if decision to mine passed

Pilot Energy awarded $6.5M in govt funding for Mid West Clean Energy Project

ITM

iTech Minerals flags high-grade rockchip finds, boasting one sample at +18% copper. What lies underground remains to be seen

ARU

Arafura updates on total US$1B funding as export banks and lenders take notice; heading toward FID for Nolans

There are more pages in this discussion • 329 more messages in this thread...

First 89 Last

Add AVZ (ASX) to my watchlist

SPONSORED BY