Hey lads,
I've managed to completely f**k up the recording (as it was my first) and left my speakers on or too high so the audio quality is near terrible (echoing) but i can still pick out most of what nigel has said. Hopefully your able to push through it.
With the latest interview with proactive investors basically summing up the benchmark interview i think it may make my recording null and void but give it a listen anyway.
Also id like to point out my calculations (with help from elphamales calcs of course) from previous posts looks like it will come to fruition with the recent "wedge" results flowing in!!!
AVZ wedge potential upside calculations as specified in AGM presentation
What we know-
1.28 Year LOM
2.36% increase in LOM operating costs
3.43% increase in LOM revenue
Using Elphamale’s table Case 3-
Calculations for no VAT refund-
Total revenue using case 3 + 43% = $16,242,821,869 x 43% = $6,984,413,403.67
= $16,242,821,869 + $6,984,413,403.67
= $23,227,235,272.67
Total OPEX using case 3 + 36%= $5,920,124,340 x 36% = $2,131,244,762.4
= $5,920,124,340 + $$2,131,244,762.4
= $8,051,369,102.4
EBITDA= $15,175,866,170.27
Total CAPEX using case 3= $545,470,000
Gross profit= $14,630,396,170.27
VAT tax paid* (11.48% gross profit)= $1,679,569,480.34 *(11.48% was worked out through elphamales calcs as I couldn’t figure out what the 16% VAT calc was done on, DFS says 16% so VAT could be slightly higher)
Income tax paid (30% gross profit)= $4,389,118,851.081
Export tax paid (5% on all revenues)= $1,161,361,763.63
Import Tax paid= $29,000,000
Total NPAT 100%= Gross profit - Taxes
= $14,630,396,170.27 - 7,259,050,095.05
= $7,371,346,075.22 USD
|
| With wedge results | Without wedge results |
|---|
| 1 | NPAT 75% to AVZ | $5,528,509,556.415 | $3,660,369,342 |
|---|
| 2 | Average annual NPAT | $197,446,769.87 (28 Years) | $183,018,467 (20 Years) |
|---|
| 3 | EPS 3 Billion | 0.065 | 0.061 |
|---|
| 4 | SP P/E 10 | $0.65 USD = $0.84 AUD | $0.610 USD |
|---|
| 5 | SP P/E 15 | $0.975 USD = $1.27 AUD | $0.915 USD |
|---|
| 6 | SP P/E 35 (The honey pot) | $2.275 USD = $ 2.96 AUD | $2.135 USD |
|---|
Calculations for VAT refund-
Total revenue using case 3 + 43% = $16,242,821,869 x 43% = $6,984,413,403.67
= $16,242,821,869 + $6,984,413,403.67
= $23,227,235,272.67
Total OPEX using case 3 + 36%= $5,920,124,340 x 36% = $2,131,244,762.4
= $5,920,124,340 + $$2,131,244,762.4
= $8,051,369,102.4
EBITDA= $15,175,866,170.27
Total CAPEX using case 3= $545,470,000
Gross profit= $14,630,396,170.27
VAT tax paid= $0
Income tax paid (30% gross profit)= $4,389,118,851.081
Export tax paid (5% on all revenues)= $1,161,361,763.63
Import Tax paid= $29,000,000
Total NPAT 100%= Gross profit - Taxes
= $14,630,396,170.27 - 5,579,480,614.71
= $ 9,050,915,555.56 USD
|
| With wedge results | Without wedge results |
|---|
| 1 | NPAT 75% to AVZ | $6,788,186,666.67 | $4,502,188,633 |
|---|
| 2 | Average annual NPAT | $242,435,238.09 (28 Years) | $225,109,432 |
|---|
| 3 | EPS 3 Billion | 0.080 | 0.075 |
|---|
| 4 | SP P/E 10 | $0.80 USD = $1.04 AUD | $ 0.75 USD |
|---|
| 5 | SP P/E 15 | $1.20 USD = $ 1.56 AUD | $ 1.125 USD |
|---|
| 6 | SP P/E 35 (The honey pot) | $2.80 USD = $ 3.64 AUD | $2.625 USD |
|---|
NPV of project using online NPV calculator-
NPAT (75% to AVZ) = $6,788,186,666.67
Average annual NPAT= $242,435,238.09
See table below
NPV over 28 year LOM = $1,710,769,665.62 USD
= $2,221,075,149.18 AUD!!!!!
Current Market cap 16/01/2021 = $591,250,000
Current Share price 16/01/2021= $0.20
% of NPV= -375% (3.756575304862579281183932346723)
Share price to match NPV= $0.75 (i mistakenly said $0.80 per share in another post, sorry too many calcs 
)
Disclaimer: I think Ive worked out my calcs correctly bar the VAT could be slightly higher. DYOR this is not financial advise. Also thanks again to elphamale and your calcs I've learnt alot by deciphering them.
Always happy to be corrected if I messed up my workings!
Good luck ladies, im as excited as can be (a lot invested) for AVZ and the future and prosperity of the people of the local area and the green revolution
