Market dynamics are hard to get a grip on, but I note a very recent table, which to my eyes suggests to me Western analysts might be misreading the policy direction of Chinese industry participants…………. because Sichuan based Tianyi Lithium does not figure in calculations by, for example, an analyst Rodney Hooper who published last week, 8th November 2019, a doc containing lithium hydroxide producers table.
So you can see we might be underestimating Chinese expectations if they think there is room for another 100kt lithium hydroxide plant. I wait research analysts views on what this means for supply and demand……………. Basically since CATL is sourcing from Tianyi Lithium, what does this mean for Ganfeng, General Lithium and similar ilk who were, or may be supplying CATL, I don’t know…...but there is rivalry, between CATL and BYD.
Looking at the table, I have questions…………. Tianyi already has approvals to build and they have a timeline over the next 3 years. Will WES and SQM happen?
What about the Wodgina/ALB plan 100kt………… likely all about knocking out anymore juniors?
AVZ Manono, just got a ticket on that table, if not yet a place.
And AVZ still has a plan to do their own Hydroxide plant............... They would have known about this when they released the shareholder letter.
All I am saying is……… looking at that table no one expected what we sense is happening with AVZ Manono and Tianyi (CATL et al)
All IMO & DYOR
AVZ Price at posting:
4.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
