Here we are. We give away 12% of the world´s biggest resource for ridiculous $14.1m. It´s obvious that Nigel Ferguson is not highly interested in shareholder value for retailers but that he worked on a deal which is great for him and Chinese entities. I would agree that Manono cannot be mined without the Chinese as their influence is enormous in this region, but, nevertheless, the deal could have been much better.
I cannot imagine that AVZ are going to mine this on their own. I suspect there will a hostile TO in 2020, but unfortunately I assume that the TO price is somewhat limited at this stage. I don´t expect that Chinese stakeholders are willing to pay more than 10c and I am pretty sure that they will get enough shares at these levels to take over control completely.
What can we conclude? Many, many shareholder won´t have a realistic chance of getting out of their losses. And I really feel an awful lot of pity for those who have believed in this magnificent resource all time long and find themselves now in between Chinese parties and a MD who only cares for himself. Nigel would be happy to sell his shares at 10c, I guess. Most of you won´t, sadly as it is.
Shareholder who bought in during Paterson´s CR around 3.8-4c or shareholders that start buying now can, of course, make money. But my gut feeling is that it is rather limited at this point to 9-10c.
AVZ Price at posting:
4.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held