AVZ 0.00% 78.0¢ avz minerals limited

Ann: AVZ introduces Yibin Tianyi Lithium as a Strategic Investor, page-77

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  1. 2,150 Posts.
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    Scarpa and @Deboss - much respect for you guys analysis so any counterpoint to my impressive is extremely welcome. Hope you know I'm not downramping - in any case my argument to the extent it makes sense sees the share price settling somewhere between where it is now and somewhere at or below 10 cents - so there is potentially an opportunity for Aussie retail to still wring value out at less than 10 cents.

    Scarpa I don't think 25% is a controlling interest - I think 25% is a blocking stake - any non-chinese bidder might find their scheme of arrangement control transaction opposed by a few small players that weren't colluding but just happened to agree that they didn't want the proposed scheme of arrangement to be successful for the party making the move.

    What I think is the most important part of the announcement to analyse is perhaps -

    "The placement is conditional upon the following being satisfied or waived within 84 days from the execution of the Subscription Agreement:

    - Obtaining the approval of the Company's shareholders"

    84 days and approval of AVZ shareholders. If this doesn't go ahead for whatever reason AVZ will have cash flow problems and will need another deal inside that 84 day time period.

    It appears that Nigel will need to get shareholder approval specifically to get this to go ahead and he'll need a vote at an AGM or extraordinary general meeting to do that (unless one of the resolutions proposed in the AGM notice - proposed some new type of direct vote - perhaps this was what they had in mind.) In any case it seems clear shareholders are going to be asked to endorse or reject this one way or another and whatever they do they are going to need to do fairly quickly or the decision will be out of their hands and the only deal available will be the only way to stay solvent.

    For some time Nigel has been talking about a Chairman. Ironically it seems that this deal - by bringing offtake into it - has substantially pre-empted any deal making power a new Chairman might have wanted for him or her self.

    What happens now re a lot of things (Chairman, this deal) would seem to be in the hands of AVZ shareholders.



 
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