AVZ 0.00% 78.0¢ avz minerals limited

With this announcement and the news that Tanganika Governor...

  1. 68 Posts.
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    With this announcement and the news that Tanganika Governor stopped Zigin's drilling work indicate to me that things started moving in our way. I think the following is likely to happen:
    1. FT wants to balance the West and China. It is beneficial for DRC to have two mines rather than AVZ or China controls the lot. There was this two mines theory 5 years ago and then it went quiet.
    2. Zigin will buy the northern section where they were drilling to confirm the resource size. Although, AVZ published the indicative resource of 170MT, Zigin needs to know what lies there, before paying good money. They got their chance (may be a scheme of arrangement) to drill out the northern part and do their resource estimate.
    3. Zigin will pay the money to Dathcom, so Comminiere can get 25% of that. Plus, they may get some percentage of the ownership.
    4. AVZ pays off Dathomir and sort out that legal issue.
    5. AVZ buys 15% share of Comminiere, so Dathcom contains only AVZ and DRC Govt.
    6. AVZ pays the $20M break fee to CATL.
    7. AVZ will bring in a Western mining house, most likely a US company. A US company recently sold their holdings in LTR. I think their new refineries will come up in the US. They need spodumene. US is spending money for the rail network to the Atlantic coast.
    8. It will be very hard for AVZ to do mining work in DRC without the support of a major.
    9. Most likely all these will happen before we come out of suspension. With Li price this low and almost two years in suspension, SP will drop like a stone when AVZ comes back to trade only with a mining licence (and almost no money in the kitty). AVZ definitely need something to boost the SP.

    This is offcourse speculation from my side. But, if this happens, then the real winner will be DRC. They get tax from two mines, balance the two powers and gets a lot of money before even 1T gets shipped out.
    People need to realise that FT is a politician and keeping his chair is the utmost thing in his mind. China has plenty of influence there, but please remember that FT went there only after 4 years in power. He went to US and Europe before that. So, basically he did a very good balancing act. Now, his chair is secured, he will be a bit more decisive.
    The ICSID interim judgement will work out very good for him. Now, he can 'force' Zigin to pay to Dathcom if they want the northern part. Zigin will have no choice but to pay good money to get the tenement. And I think they will pay.
    Some may think this is fanciful. With AVZ, expect the unexpected.
 
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