LYL 0.89% $13.61 lycopodium limited

I bought a small, initial stake on Friday. I love the sober,...

  1. 394 Posts.
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    I bought a small, initial stake on Friday. I love the sober, no-hype commentary from management. The cash on the balance sheet, and the boring stability of founders having large positions in the company. LYL seems to do a complicated and technical thing very well and with little fuss. Large mining entities seem to have little hesitation in using them. I also like that new shares are not being created each year to pay for acquisitions, bonuses, reinvestment plans and the like. That's always a pet hate of mine. It's been the same number of shares on issue for about a decade. Almost to the point of the company being too thinly traded. I'm sure the fund managers hate it; not a problem for me, though. Shareholders' Equity has been growing consistently. There's a reasonable dividend too -- even when assuming it will be closer to 2021's amount than 2022 it is more than respectable. And of course, the modest PE ratio. And the share price hasn't suddenly arrived at $6.70 -- BNPL-style. It's up 450% over the past seven years for good reason: earnings are increasing.

    Most of all I'm very interested in the electrification / energy transition theme. Governments are losing their minds on the climate change issue, almost with religious devotion to the topic. It's not going to end well for the country, but I suspect there's a lot of money to be made for miners and those involved in the construction industry. The hundreds of billions governments are planning to spend in Australia alone will require a heap of raw material (new mines) and companies to build physical infrastructure (civil engineering). Lithium and cobalt, of course; but also boring old copper and nickel. That's just in Australia.

    The same people protesting about climate change and demanding renewables are often the noisiest in opposing new mines. You can't have it both ways! One does not need to spend much time searching online to find a) evidence of a huge under-investment in new mines over the past decade; and b) huge shortages in minerals anticipated from 2025. Mines diminish over time so obviously if you're not investing in exploration, and then the exploitation of your discoveries, a big problem emerges which can't be fixed in a hurry. Smart companies are planning for the future by investing in future-facing commodities now, either through M&A, or looking to bring new mines online in the mid-to-late 2020s.

    I suspect commodity prices have to rise in this scenario, which attracts entrants to the market -- companies who will require LYL's services. I'm also anticipating a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for all engineering companies with the amount of work required to build a whole new electricity transmission system, EV charging stations, solar farms, wind farms etc. That may not strictly be LYL's core competency, but with *this* much work required, it may be a case of all hands on deck as someone will have to plan and build them. At the very least it may keep our competitors busy and let us focus on more mining contracts. Didn't the PM say 80% renewable energy by 2030? It sounds impossible. That's a lot of work to go around.

    I dislike buying a stock close to the 12 month high, but after doing a fair bit of research, this is a company I'm really pleased to have in my portfolio. And I dare say if the share price drops suddenly in the future, I'll be very happy to have the opportunity to cheaply acquire more. I think there's a positive future ahead and no matter what the macroeconomic outlook, it's a very well-run operation which will adapt to whatever the future brings.
 
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Last
$13.61
Change
0.120(0.89%)
Mkt cap ! $540.8M
Open High Low Value Volume
$13.68 $13.90 $13.52 $542.8K 39.66K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 168 $13.57
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$13.67 168 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 09/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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