Their EPS will be positive from year 1, but would expect dividends to be similar (after factoring in dilution of recent raising). I expect earnings impact and synergies will come into play as the years progress.
They also have double the customers now so you can expect AFG's loan book to increase at a faster speed. Their book has gone from $1bn to 2.8bn in a couple of years so the more it grows, the greater the returns and dividends will be. While there may be some small amount of loan defaults due to COVID, AFG is well capitalised after the recent raising. And given loans over 80% LVR are insured, I don't think there will be much tangible impact to the balance sheet unless the economy totally falls apart.
Post merger, AFG will originate about 1/4 of all loans in Australia so plenty of reasons for shareholders to be excited. The company is well placed to be one of the biggest financial companies in Australia.
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