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04/02/15
14:50
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Originally posted by gosouth
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The reality is if you want to put your hard earnt cash into an greenfields exploration stock with no assets, then what you are doing is exposing your hard earnt cash to the probabilities of exploration. In the oil exploration game these probabilities are actually assessed and published before drilling. But in mineral exploration it seems to be convenient that no one discusses the probability of success in their drill programs. Unfortunately the probabilities of success are terrible... 1 in 10, 1 in 50, 1 in 100... take you pick. All you are doing is exposing your capital to these sorts of odds which are no better than what you get at a race track. There is no "investing" in this game. There is only punting, like it or not. You can take the short punt or the long term punt, take your pick, its is the same game.
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Ahh the probability of success...
I agree with you wholeheartedly Gosouth, although I have always leaned towards the conservative 1:1,000 ratio. It seems many a punter on exploration companies do not appreciate the real risk of exploration.
A good article published by CET, page 16-21
Estimating Historical Probabilities of Discovery in Mineral Exploration