HHI 0.00% 0.5¢ health house international limited

Ann: Baillieu Holst releases Velpic Research Report, page-53

  1. 593 Posts.
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    I do not mean to be overly critical of the research report by Baillieu Holst but let us just look at the facts.

    They completed the capital raising at 2.5 cents.

    They have selected an arbitrary EV/Revenue multiple based on the mean of 'SAAS Peer' companies which include Xero, Atlassian and Linkedin (I would argue this is entirely inappropriate). This lead to a 12 month target price of 8 cents.

    Their discounted cash flow model has a target price 0f 18 cents. They ignored this due to uncertainty of Velpic cash flows yet were happy to compare EV/Revenue multiples of companies with certain cash flows (large SAAS companies). This is where I believe the research report is flawed.

    This research report does implicitly state that the value of this opportunity is unidentifiable with any means of precision.

    I believe it is rather amateur to put such a precise target price on any stock let alone one whose future is as fickle to calculate as Velpic.

    It is important that Baillieu Holst concludes  it is likely that a conservative intrinsic value for this company is higher than current levels. This is not unlike the opinion of current holders and any 'target values' are just opinions based on assumptions that may or may not be appropriate (give your own analysis more credit!).
 
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