The fact that they are drilling downdip, doesn't have to be positive. As long as their seismic is correct - and we can assume that they have been able to calibrate that with their previous dry hole - they should hit the structure. That is very postive.
The key risk in drilling downdip is probably that they might be intersecting the structure below the oil water contact, and that would kill that target. The question is how much downdip it is, and how accurate their depth prognosis will be. If they hit all the horizons at their estimated depths from the prognosis, they should be fairly sure before they intersect the reservoir(s) whether they will come in above or below the OWC.
The fact that they are drilling downdip, doesn't have to be...
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