All I'm saying is there is nothing wrong with our targets being exceeded earlier than expected.
Perhaps I misunderstood you? Maybe you were talking about short term overbought? I was talking about overheated meaning long term overvalued and therefore exceeding our targets. I'd prefer that happening in 6 months rather than 1 or 2 years.
At this stage though, it is too difficult to define what overvalued would be.
Do we base that on a valuation above the DFS NPV which had stage two expansion only happening after 7 years of more gradual ramp up?
Or on the post Carrinho updated sales volumes with the much faster ramp up to near stage 1 capacity - which is around 180,000tpa?
Or any one of the above plus an early stage two expansion and large export volumes?
Or any one of the above plus green ammonia potential valuation?
Good luck to any of us putting a number on what would actually be a long term valuation at this stage.
There is of course also the possibility of less than the DFS assumptions but with stage two expansion lioking likely early, the DFS valuation might be a likely base case.
The DFS valuation with a stage 2 expansion being 7 years off still comes in at above A$300mill for our new share of the project at spot TSP prices. That is still around four times the current market cap. Maybe around three times allowing for options. Not bad if that is the base case of the possible outcomes listed above as that would give me a base case target starting around 27c. Just adding export sales to that DFS case (not the higher post Carrinho guidance) could push that target into the 30-40c range. Something a couple of posters were calling absurd recently but realistically achievable.
On top of that, what could the green ammonia be worth?
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