After re-reading the announcement and listening to Bryan's...

  1. 180 Posts.
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    After re-reading the announcement and listening to Bryan's interview, I genuinely believe there has been a gross over-reaction from the market on this. Looking over much of the commentary on this thread, here is the reasoning;
    1. Viability - Many commenters have taken to suggesting the entire project is not viable in this environment. Not true. It is the BFS itself that is not viable as the company needs to focus on the preservation of capital, leading in to,
    2. A Capital Raise? Bryan's comments actually highlight the fact that in unsteady markets, such as the one we are in, it is difficult to raise capital if needed. . . So, if the costs of the BFS are blowing out, then it makes sense to pick and chose which components to continue and where to explore other options i.e. save cash so they don't have to raise.
    3. 20mta, 10mta or 5mta. The BFS was started at 10mta and rejigged to consider the best possible option for progressing the project which, in a strong(er) economic environment, would have been the 20mta coupled with the 400km pipeline. Why? Because when confidence is high, money is easy to come by.
    So,
    Bryan has openly said the board will explore every option to progress the project including using existing infrastructure (older ways) at perhaps a 5mta rate. He has acknowledged raising capital will be difficult so is looking to conserve capital. And if the BFS prices are rising, save the money there. The news was likely enough to see some larger holders use it as an excuse to exit and if it wasn't the price action certainly was.

    Time will tell and I might be reading this all a little too optimistically but that's my take.

    One other thing I find particularly interesting in this whole thing is their advisers on the economic environment are Citi-Group. . . Well, I have been around long enough to know that Citi's analysts are the most straight line out there. These are the guys who called FMG to 70c when it was trading at $1.70. 6 months later it was $7+ (circa 2013)
 
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