Ann: Bankable Feasibility Study for Australian Vanadium Project, page-88

Need to correct this post so reposting the table, and reported my own post. Took the A$ figures in previous post when I should have started with US$ figures and then did exchange rate - my error, and I apologise.

I suspect the market is currently pricing AVL at NPV only - should it be near 100% of NPV time will tell. People I guess need to understand the difference between NPV, which is a discounted measure, and how that influences SP and nominal metrics of EBITDA (and how they influence SP). And obviously things need to be converted to A$ they are using 72c assumption btw.

A classic example is PLS - check their NPV at time of DFS and how that might have looked SP wise and what their SP is now based on nominal metrics.

Looking at where we are at:

1. Suspect market still weary of where AVL is at. SP is currently based IMO on NPV. Others like another stock I hold are based on a transition point between NPV and EBITDA, but for that stock the market IMO is banking on it getting to production. That stock is not vanadium btw but the point I am making is that right now there is no 'upper edge' in the SP of a supposed transition point to production. VA needs to convince the market that AVL will get to production.

2. If the market is basing SP solely on NPV normally would expect SP to be 40% - 50% of NPV, maybe higher, so the next week or so as the market digests, this BFS will determine where SP moves short term. The key though is the market will need to believe that BFS is achievable and importantly the 2025 production date will happen, and if that is the view then SP might transition to a combination of NPV/EBITDA. If they don't believe SP will fall, an obvious point. My conservative view as this still remains a risk reward equation. The key to SP prediction is what P/E ratio you use. Most probably use P/E20 I suspect, but some miners for example operate at higher P/E ratios as well, and some might slightly be lower.

3. To understand the above, this is the table below using the BFS parameters. SP will look after itself if this gets to production and BFS variables are met. Long term hold, with short term risks, but this side of the market is always a risk, and free carry strategies might be worthwhile. In production things are different but getting to production and convincing the market this is not a pie in the sky dream is the key, and a good start would be getting your approvals in order and seeking to get offtakes. Explaining the role of VSUN and where vanadium is to be sourced from also a key, and a key is the mine will supply that IMO. Risk/reward here definately.





All IMO