These generic timelines no longer hold much weight with me. A snapshot of management's forward planning at this point in time only. Entirely subject to change. Too many variables, too many controlling hands that are yet to be disclosed.
The fundamentals remain the anchor point for me, as strong as ever. This year has been a difficult one in terms of really understanding where the company is at and how the overarching strategy will play out over the next 12 months.
I have been pleased with the detailed engineering design and pre-construction work on Kwinana this year. The timeline has slipped but the broad-based work has been thorough and yielded strong results - it is now a very low risk operation, in my opinion. I'm displeased with the ongoing silence on the European BAM facility and general European rollout, including the all important strategic relationships - I do understand the sensitivities at play here and the need for discretion but this area is of fundamental importance to the success of EGR and shareholders ought to hear something shortly.
With regard to the Kwinana construction timeline - 2023 for phase 1 yes, much later for phase 2. Here is a conservative progression..... Dec 2021 - planning studies completed by consultants to inform approval submissions to government Jan 2022 - submission of Works Approval and Development approval to government Apr 2022 - approval review completion guidance allowance of a couple of months for potential approval amendments, phase 1 FID formalities, etc. Jul 2022 - commencement of phase 1 construction Jun 2023 - completion of phase 1 construction allowance of a few months for construction timeline blowout (hopefully no Covid related supply delays by then) and commissioning Sep 2023 - commissioned, fully operational phase 1 facility allowance of a half-year to formalise EFA funding and whatever else may be required prior to phase 2 FID (further permitting/approvals?) Mar 2024 - commencement of phase 2 construction Sep 2025 - completion of phase 2 construction (off the top of my head, 18 month construction period for phase 2 - memory could fail me here) allowance of a few months for construction timeline blowout and commissioning Jan 2026 - commissioned, fully operational phase 2 facility
The ultra conservative path forward would be to commence construction of the European BAM facility after Kwinana phase 2 is humming along at full production capacity. Considering the projected demand spike of SPG, surely it will be fast-tracked, likely under the direction of a major partner.
EGR Price at posting:
61.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)